Economic Appraisal Guidance
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The Basic Steps of an Economic Appraisal

STEP MAIN PROCEDURES IN BRIEF GUIDANCE
1. EXPLAIN THE STRATEGIC CONTEXT
  • Refer to underlying policy or strategy, e.g. policy statements, statutory requirements, or business plans.
  • Indicate how the proposal is expected to contribute to the relevant strategic aims and objectives.
NI Practical Guide section 2.1

Green Book chapters 3 & 4
2. ESTABLISH THE NEED FOR EXPENDITURE
  • Establish the need for expenditure by:-
    • analysing the expected demand for services; and
    • identifying deficiencies in current service provision.
  • Justify and quantify the proposed level of service provision over the appraisal period.
Where funding the non-Govt sectors is in view:- Assess Additionality i.e. establish that the proposed assistance is the minimum necessary.
NI Practical Guide section 2.2

Green Book chapters 3 & 4

NI Practical Guide section 4.3
3. DEFINE THE OBJECTIVES AND CONSTRAINTS
  • Define the expected outcomes and outputs.
  • Specify targets that are SMART i.e. Specific Measurable Achievable Relevant and Time-dependent.
  • Include implementation targets e.g. dates, milestones.
  • State the key constraints on the project, e.g. technical, financial, legal, timing etc.
  • Indicate the relative priority of individual objectives or elements of the proposals
  • Provide sufficient detail to enable option generation and option performance assessment.
NI Practical Guide section 2.3

Green Book chapter 4
4. IDENTIFY & DESCRIBE THE OPTIONS
  • Identify and describe a baseline option, usually the status quo, and a suitably wide range of alternative options.
  • Consider variations in scale, quality, technique, location, timing and funding method.
  • Examine alternative procurement options including appropriate consideration of a PPP solution.
  • Choose a suitable number of options for full appraisal.
  • Where some are rejected before full appraisal, explain reasons for rejection.
NI Practical Guide section 2.4

Green Book chapters 5
5. IDENTIFY & QUANTIFY THE MONETARY COSTS AND BENEFITS OF OPTIONS
  • Detail capital costs, including any refurbishment costs, and annual recurrent costs and benefits of all options.
  • Express costings in total rather than incremental terms, to expose full resource consequences.
  • Include opportunity costs and residual values for all assets employed, whether already owned or not.
  • Assess displacement, and adjust costings accordingly.
  • Adjust for inflation and (where relevant) tax differences.
  • Where cost savings or efficiency improvements are projected, indicate whether they will represent financial savings or redeployment of resources.
  • Consider costs and benefits to other parts of the public and private sectors.
Where funding the non-Govt sector is in view:- Assess Cost-Effectiveness by reference to relevant ratios such as cost per job, public assistance to project cost, etc.
NI Practical Guide section 2.5

Green Book chapter 5 and Annex 3

HMT supplementary guidance on the taxation of PFI and the public sector comparator

NI Practical Guide section 4.4
6. APPRAISE RISKS AND ADJUST FOR OPTIMISM BIAS
  • Prepare a risk log identifying and quantifying the main risks associated with the proposal.
  • Consider how risks compare under the different options.
  • Adjust costs, benefits and timing assumptions for optimism bias.
  • Develop suitable risk management and risk reduction strategies.
NI Practical Guide section 2.6

Green Book chapter 5 and Annex 4;

HMT supplementary guidance on the treatment of optimism bias.
7. WEIGH UP NON MONETARY COST & BENEFITS (INCLUDING NEW TSN & EQUALITY)
  • Identify relevant non-monetary costs and benefits.
  • Quantify them in suitable units where possible.
  • Employ appropriate technique to show how they compare under the different options e.g. "list and describe" in simpler cases; "impact statement" or "weighted scoring method" in others.
  • Consider distributional issues incl. New TSN & Equality.
  • Explain assumptions clearly e.g. weights and scores should be explained individually.
  • Interpret the results of the non-monetary analysis.
NI Practical Guide section 2.7

Green Book Annexes 2 & 5
8. CALCULATE NET PRESENT VALUES (NPVs) AND ASSESS UNCERTAINTIES
  • Identify phasing of monetary costs and benefits over suitable time period, adjusted for inflation, optimism bias and (where relevant) displacement and tax differences.
  • Calculate NPV (or NPC) for each option, using correct discount rate.
  • Include spreadsheets detailing the calculations, including disaggregation of cost/benefit items.
  • Show, for each year, the discount factors used, the total NPV for the year, and the cumulative NPV to that year.
  • Identify the price basis and base year for discounting.
  • Test and interpret the sensitivity of the NPVs (or NPCs) to changes in important assumptions, and explain choice of variations covered.
  • Interpret the results e.g. estimate the probability of various possible outcomes and implications for option ranking.
  • Provide sufficient detail to enable checking of calculations.
NI Practical Guide section 2.8

Green Book chapter 5 and Annex 6
9. ASSESS ARRANGEMENTS FOR FINANCING, MANAGEMENT, PROCUREMENT, MARKETING, MONITORING AND EX POST EVALUATION
  • Financing: Include budget, cash flow and funding statements, phased over time.
  • Management: Give details of proposed personnel, procurement method, timetable, benefits realisation plan, accommodation needs, staffing issues etc.
  • Marketing: Provide market assessment and marketing plan as appropriate
  • Monitoring: Indicate how the proposed option will be monitored during and after implementation.
  • Evaluation: Record pre-implementation levels of resource use and service provision. Indicate factors to be evaluated, when, how and by whom.
Where funding the non-Govt sector is in view:- Assess Viability i.e. examine cash flows, management & financial arrangements to ensure that funding is not wasted on proposals that will fail prematurely.
NI Practical Guide sections 2.9, 10 & 11

Green Book chapters 6 & 7

NI Practical Guide section 4.5
10. ASSESS THE BALANCE BETWEEN THE OPTIONS AND PRESENT THE RESULTS & CONCLUSIONS
  • Write up the steps of the appraisal in the order shown here.
  • Give details of assumptions and calculations, using appropriate appendices.
  • Include summary of main results (i.e. NPVs/NPCs, unquantifiables and uncertainties) for each option.
  • Draw out the balance of advantage among options, assess VFM and affordability, and record conclusions and recommendations.
NI Practical Guide section 2.10

Green Book chapter 6